Threat from quantum computers
Experts believe that quantum computers will be able to break the asymmetric cryptosystems currently in use (including RSA, ECC, public key systems) by the end of the next decade. What is not yet a threat for smartphones and other smart devices due to their short life cycle, looks quite different for vehicles or industrial facilities, for example: A vehicle produced today runs the risk that the security measures used will no longer be secure in the future and the risk of becoming a victim of hacking attacks will increase significantly.
This means that especially in the areas of IIoT (Industrial Internet of Things), Software Defined Vehicle (cf. in particular CSMS, UN/ECE R155, ISO21434) and KRITIS (critical infrastructures) we should already be looking for secure alternatives today.
Since 2017, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in the USA has already been working on the evaluation of quantum computer-resistant asymmetric algorithms. However, standardization of the first algorithms from this evaluation process is not expected before next year.
Even if the standardization of quantum computer-resistant algorithms has not yet been completed, it is still advisable to gain experience with the use of the new algorithms now and to prepare IIoT products and vehicles for them through crypto-agility. This is because a system's high level of crypto-agility can enable it to switch to new secure algorithms quickly and cost-effectively.